Italy: everything changes so that nothing changes, again (?)

For the first time under the Fifth Republic, France did not find a majority in the National Assembly. This situation is much more common among our transalpine neighbors, who have known this format since 2018. Last week, the political turmoil in Italy made think of a new crisis of the government, but the experience in the field of the non-majority seems avoid yet another blockage of the state.

Umpteenth internal political crisis, but without impact

The official announcement was made on Tuesday June 21: the Italian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Luigi di Maio, is leaving the 5 Star Movement, taking with him more than fifty deputies for a new parliamentary group. This announcement – ​​anticipated for several months – sowed doubt for a few moments: the party most represented in parliament is splitting, what will happen to the government coalition? The fright was short-lived, because even if the MoVimento 5 Stelle implodes, both parties should be part of the government alliance, for different reasons. On the one hand, the 5 Star Movement already supports the current government, although their leader Giuseppe Conte is increasingly critical of the policies exercised by Mario Draghi. It is moreover this distancing that gave birth to the faction dimaaiana (favorable to Luigi di Maio), close to the government and with a more centrist vocation. To sum up, the 5 Star Movement has changed and a consequent fringe becomes a party with Luigi di Maio, while another remains closer to the original idea of ​​the Movement, with Giuseppe Conte.

This dissent was to be expected, as Luigi di Maio has shifted dramatically in the past two years, shifting from Euroceptism dedicated to the cause of the yellow vests to a moderate pro-Europe discourse. His party will be called Insieme per il futuro (Together for the future), a name which of course recalls the coalition for the presidential majority of Emmanuel Macron. A centrist position which announces potential alliances still unimaginable a few months ago, but Italian political history teaches us that the political landscape is constantly changing: nearly a third of parliamentarians have changed groups during the last four years. Luigi di Maio, a great architect of this phenomenon, himself pleaded for a fine of €150,000 for anyone leaving the 5-star Movement before the end of the legislature.

Luigi di Maio leaves his Movement, but remains in government. He will continue to collaborate with the Democratic Party, which would not be against the idea of ​​recruiting him. Even Luigi di Maio’s worst enemy, Vincenzo de Luca (Democratic Party) said he was open to dialogue. Recovering the current Minister of Foreign Affairs would be a way of making the main centre-left party even stronger and of curbing the grand centrist coalition that could emerge.

The enlarged government of Mario Draghi gives ideas to the center

Other political actors are starting to position themselves in view of the legislative elections of May 2023, and a broad alliance from the center is possible, although at the beginning. In particular, it could include Italy Viva by Matteo Renzi, Forza Italia by Silvio Berlusconi and – hypothetically – Matteo Salvini. The League leader is losing momentum, doubled from the right by Giorgia Meloni. Mr. Salvini is therefore looking for a new place on the political spectrum, and the example of Luigi di Maio could give him ideas. Matteo Salvini has largely reduced the aggressive attacks, quoting the Pope more and more and being more spiritual than ever. A new direction for the captain which could open the doors to a right center still existing, but without a leader. Only Azione, by Carlo Calenda, does not seem interested in this grand coalition, Mr. Calenda having always abhorred the 5-Star Movement, and therefore Luigi di Maio. A doubt hangs over Forza Italia also. The strong figures of the party (Mara Carfagna and Renato Brunetta) are rather favorable to this centrist union, but Silvio Berlusconi does not hear it that way and intends to return to the fore this year, despite his 85 years.

This possibility of a grand coalition is already taking shape at the local level. members ofItaly Viva supported – unofficially – the new mayor of Palermo Roberto Lagalla (Centre Union) in the last municipal elections. This same election saw the entry to the municipal council of the Nuova Democrazia Cristianaa new version of the centrist political party that ruled post-war Italy through the 1990s.

Could New Christian Democracy be the banner of this new center? Difficult, because the creators of this historic return of the DC are Marcello dell’Utri and Totò Cuffaro, both condemned for mafia association, a very bad publicity for a party which had disappeared following the operation clean hands (against corruption) of the 90s. Despite this, the New DC is in the city council of Palermo, with more than 5% of the vote. The idea seems difficult to realize, but remains valid.

A great stir on the Italian political scene, with which the local press is delighted, but which is therefore only relative: this grand coalition of the center is estimated at 10-15% of the voting intentions. An alliance that cannot win the election, but could be leverage for a majority in the next election.

Draghi security, the multiplication of parties and transfers

It seems obvious that Mario Draghi will remain in his post at least until the end of the legislature, and the idea of ​​reappointing him for another five years is already being heard. International confidence regained for Italy after the turbulent period of the extreme Lega-5 star government. In this climate of regained stability and as part of the preparation for the May 2023 elections, each potential candidate creates his political current, in order to be able to negotiate a place in the future victorious coalition or in the opposition. We are witnessing a multiplication of parties, often with “Italia” in the title: Italy Viva, Italia al centro, Ancora Italia, Noi con l’Italia, Italia dei valori, Sogno Italia… The omnipresence of the name of the country in the headings also indicates a certain tendency towards the predominance of the nation, for some in opposition to the European Union (such as Italexit per l’Italia by G. Paragone). A number of parties that would almost all adhere to the same center coalition, while being rivals. According to historian Paolo Mieli, the large Italian center takes on a format similar to that of the European Union: stable in its hierarchy, but where each small entity can block the gears for different reasons which are specific to its interests.

Despite all these difficulties, the current Italian political system works, as long as one person agrees to take the reins of a split center that is increasingly difficult to please with each new creation of a dissident parliamentary group. The figure of Mario Draghi works perfectly in this role, as long as he agrees to stay there.

The growing alternative to the far right: Giorgia Meloni

A part of the Lega more in the center with Matteo Salvini, another closer to its territory with Luca Zaia (the president of the Veneto region), the League would no longer bet so much on the sovereignty or populism which had made Matteo Salvini famous. The League is looking for its new identity and is losing ground – today it is around 15% – and leaves the field open to Giorgia Meloni and Fratelli d’Italia, alone on the side of the hard right. Mrs. Meloni has the advantage of not having (too many) alliances made and then undone, which gives her the image of someone who keeps the same guideline. His party is not without reproach for all that: while legality and order are hallowed words among the Brothers of Italy, Francesco Lombardo (their candidate for the Palermo election) was arrested for having bought votes from the Mafia. Nevertheless, the forces acquired in the cause of Madame Meloni are faithful, and it is a safe bet that Fratelli d’Italia will be the leading party in Italy in the next elections, if we do not take into account the larger coalitions.

In this game of sometimes unexpected alliances, it seems very difficult to find a homogeneous majority for the next legislative election. The appointment of the next President of the Council will therefore again be a headache reminiscent of that of the election of the President of the Republic and which could end in the same way, namely the reappointment of the outgoing President. It is still necessary that Mr. Draghi accepts, he who had very ironically declared that he had “a very good team [de ministres]”. Mario Draghi could therefore remain in his post, perhaps against his will, as was the case for the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella, for lack of anything better.

Great political strategies with sometimes incredible alliances, to return to the same presidents. Everything must change so that nothing changes, as the writer Tommasi di Lampedusa said.